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We’re back after the international break and looking to make six consecutive game weeks of profit after a big game two weeks ago. We correctly picked Leeds to beat Watford on Saturday, although our prop bets all fell through. But Crystal Palace and Leicester City drew 2-2 as we expected and although Crystal Palace didn’t get a penalty or Wilfried Zaha scored we ended the weekend with a comeback. on investment of 119%.
Before you read on, remember these important points: Betting on sports should be fun. If you’re not having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you cannot afford to lose. And if you don’t agree with my choices, don’t bet on them. I’m far from being a professional player and just love to play football. All I’m doing is looking at the stats to try to find potential value in the most likely outcomes. I’ll predict the score of every game I watch (although these are notoriously hard to choose, so I’m not suggesting that you bet on these in any meaningful way) and I’ll choose the bets that I think offer the best value for money, so it will be down to you what you bet on and how.
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EPL 2021-22 betting choices
- Total number of selections: 27-27-3 (+12.57 U)
- Match Results: 11-5
Saturday, October 16, 2021
Wolves (+255) at Aston Villa (+125) – 10 a.m.ET
I’m normally a bit reluctant to go for local derbies, but there are some good value choices here, especially since I’m slightly favoring the underdogs in this one.
Wolves have had a rough start to this season, losing their first three games, but have since won three of four and have conceded just six goals in seven games so far. Scoring has been more difficult with just five goals, but Summer Hwang Hee-chan’s signing has scored three goals in their last four games. He will be crucial for them again this week with star striker Raúl Jiménez in doubt due to his game for Mexico in the early hours of Thursday morning.
After impressive victories against Everton (3-0) and Manchester United (1-0), Aston Villa returned to Earth a fortnight ago with a 2-1 loss to struggling Tottenham. They remain undefeated at home with only one goal conceded and six scored (three games). I think that unbeaten record remains intact as I think this one ends in a draw, but Wolves’ recent form gives me reason to believe they can cause a bit of upheaval. Wolves are showing signs of being more used to their new manager’s style of play and new additions to the squad continue to adapt.
The two matches between the teams last season ended 0-0 and 1-0 with the lone goal coming from the penalty spot. With the Wolves’ style of play, I expect another tight, low scoring game. I can easily see this one ending aimlessly too. Just a reminder never to bet on a score of 0-0. Instead, always back the “no goalscorer†bet. These are the same odds, but that means if the match’s only goal (s) is credited as an own own goal, you always win.
I’m also intrigued by the corner market with this game. It’s easy to see the odds for the match and support Aston Villa to get more corners, but in their home games Aston Villa have had 11 corners for and 10 versus. While Wolves have 17 corners in their away games and have conceded 16 corners.
I also go with the underside in the total corners. Wolves’ seven games had a total of 64 corners (9.14 per game) while Aston Villa’s games had a total of 65 (9.25 per game). Five of Wolves’ seven games have had nine or fewer corners while four of Aston Villa’s seven games have had fewer than ten corners.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1 – 1 Wolves
Choice of bets:
- Moneyline – Mintage (+238) 0.5 units
- Draw no bet – Wolves (+148) 0.5 u.
- Total Goals – Under 2.5 (-129) 1 credit
- Most Coins – Wolves (+141) 0.5 u.
- Total number of coins – Less than 9.5 (+107) 1 unit
- Anytime Marker – Hwang Hee-chan (+250) 0.5 units
Sunday 17 October 2021
West Ham United (+198) at Everton (+155) – 9 a.m.ET
West Ham are looking for a consecutive top 10 in the Premier League for the first time since the 2007/08 and 2008/09 seasons. Their sixth place last season was their best EPL result since they were fifth in 1998/99. They appeared to be contenders for this goal after winning their first two games of this season.
But they’ve only won once in their last five games despite scoring 14 goals, the most of any team outside of the top-4. However, the 10 goals they conceded represent the most of any top 12 team. They are undefeated away this season with two wins and one draw.
Everton have had a good start to the season and come in fifth place this weekend with just one loss in seven games. They won all three home games with an aggregate score of 8-2 and all games were won by a two-goal margin. I’m not sure they win by two goals, but I expect Everton to maintain their 100% home record in what should be an exciting game that has the potential to be a top deal. score.
Everton have just two clean sheets on the season, one of which is against the bottom of the Norwich table. West Ham only have one clean sheet (against Southampton) which was also the only game they have failed to score in so far. Everton have also failed to score once this season.
We are also going to add some incidental bets for this game, the most important being the half with the most goals. In Everton’s seven games, there have been a total of six goals scored in the first half and fifteen in the second half. It’s a similar story for West Ham with nine goals scored in the first half of their games and fifteen in the second half.
We will also be adding cards to the market with Everton receiving more bookings. West Ham are the least penalized team in the league with just eight reservations while Everton had 13. Everton have had more reservations than their opponents in four games, with the other three tied. West Ham have received fewer bookings than their opponents in four games, two of which were ties and once they received more yellow cards (1-0).
Finally, we will add corners with the outer side bordering this market. Despite winning all three home games, Everton had fewer corners in two of those games. West Ham have had more corners than their opponents in two of their three away games. West Ham have also totaled 44 corners this season, compared to 31 for Everton.
Score prediction: Everton 2 – 1 West Ham
Choice of bets:
- Moneyline – Everton (+155) 1 unit
- Most booking points – Everton (+175) 0.5 units
- Most Corners – West Ham United (+103) 1 unit
- Both teams score and total goals – Yes and over 2.5 (+120) 1 unit
- Half with most goals – Second half (-105) 1.5 u.
Good luck with these EPL bets and don’t forget to bet responsibly!
More bets and DFS choices
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